When predicting the number of sprints for a project with a backlog of 300 points, which velocity measure should be used?

Using the average velocity over a longer time period is often the most reliable method for predicting the number of sprints needed to complete a project backlog. Average velocity accounts for the fluctuations and variations in team performance that can occur from sprint to sprint. By considering a longer time frame, it smooths out any anomalies and provides a more stable benchmark for future sprints.

This performance metric reflects the team's capacity more accurately, incorporating changes in team dynamics, the complexity of tasks, and external factors that might affect productivity. Consequently, it offers a realistic projection of how much work can be accomplished in upcoming sprints, helping to gauge the appropriate timeline for project completion.

Other measures like highest velocity, lowest velocity, or median velocity may not accurately represent the team's sustainable capacity, as they can be influenced by outlier performance or do not adequately accommodate variability in workload complexity. Therefore, relying on the average velocity ensures that the prediction for the number of sprints is grounded in a consistent and reasonable understanding of the team's output.